20 December 2007 - 10:38

Start 'Em and Sit 'Em: Week 16  Comments

QUARTERBACKS -- START 'EM

Donovan McNabb (at NO): McNabb appears to thrive when he's in some sort of controversy or being scrutinized, and this latest snafu with a FOX sideline reporter about what he said or didn't say regarding his future could be all the motivation he needs. It also helps that he's facing one of the worst secondaries in the NFL this week. The Saints have allowed 26 passing touchdowns this year and give up 249.6 yards per game.

Carson Palmer (vs. CLE): This game also calls for starting Derek Anderson as well since their first meeting was his coming-out party. When these teams met in Week 2, Palmer passed for 401 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions, and Anderson had 328 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. This game should be high-scoring depending on the weather, but I still like both passers this week. In Palmer's past three games against the Browns he has 1,028 yards passing, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Kurt Warner (vs. ATL): It will be interesting to see what the Cardinals do with Warner and Matt Leinart next year because Warner is making it hard to keep him on the bench. In his past six games Warner has 15 touchdowns and two games over 300 yards passing with at least two touchdowns in each game. The only problem is he also has 10 interceptions during that span, but that shouldn't be too much of a concern this week. His top two receivers in Larry Fitzgerald (groin) and Anquan Boldin (toe) are playing through pain, and Warner is also using little-known tight ends Ben Patrick and Troy Bienemann with Leonard Pope out.

Ben Roethlisberger (at STL): There are two concerns with Big Ben: He doesn't throw for a ton of yards (less than 200 yards passing in his past five games) and he takes too many sacks (he has 43, which is second behind Detroit's (Jon Kitna). But Roethlisberger throws touchdowns, and he had three more last week. His shoulder is fine, and this is a big game for the Steelers, so he should play well.

Matt Hasselbeck (vs. BAL): After a tough week at Carolina, Hasselbeck returns home where he has thrived recently. In Seattle's past five home games, Hasselbeck has 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions, with at least two touchdowns in each game. The Ravens secondary has been a disappointment all season, and Hasselbeck should shine in this matchup.

Jeff Garcia (at SF). This is the first time Garcia will face the 49ers since leaving there in 2003, so you figure he has something to prove. He returned to the lineup last week after missing two games with an injured back and was mediocre with 109 yards passing, one touchdown and one interception. In Garcia's past three road games this year he has six touchdowns and no interceptions. And the last time he faced one of his former teams in Week 7 at Detroit, Garcia had 316 yards passing and two touchdowns.

QUARTERBACKS -- SIT 'EM

Eli Manning (at BUF): Manning has only one game over 200 yards passing in his past three and hasn't thrown multiple touchdowns in a game in his past seven. In fact, over that span he has six touchdowns and eight interceptions. Now Manning is dealing with dropped passes from his wide receivers and is without Jeremy Shockey for the rest of the year. This game also could have inclement weather, so keep Manning on the bench.

Sage Rosenfels (at IND): Rosenfels has been great since filling in for an injured Matt Schaub with six touchdowns (one rushing) and two interceptions in his past three games. But two of those games were at home, and it's on the road where Rosenfels tends to struggle. He has three touchdowns and four interceptions in his past three road games with less than 200 yards passing in each outing. The Colts also have the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL with only 14 passing touchdowns allowed.

David Garrard (vs. OAK): I love the way Garrard has played recently, and he could have a similar game like last week at Pittsburgh where he passed for 197 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. But I just don't think he'll have to do much this week. Oakland can't stop the run, so expect Jacksonville to do plenty of handing off to Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. The Raiders also are No. 2 in the NFL with only 11 passing touchdowns allowed, so Garrard could be limited this week.

Chad Pennington (at TEN): Pennington is expected to return as the starter with Kellen Clemens banged up, but don't plan on using Pennington this week. He's just not good any more, Laveranues Coles (ankle) isn't healthy and the Titans are among the league leaders with 20 interceptions.

Jay Cutler (at SD): Most of Cutler's success this year has come at home. On the road, Cutler has struggled, and he has only four touchdowns and four interceptions in his past four games away from home. He did throw for 188 yards and two touchdowns in his only trip to San Diego last year, but he also had 232 yards passing, no touchdowns and one interception at home against the Chargers this season. San Diego leads the NFL with 27 interceptions, and Cutler has an interception in six of seven road games this year.

Tony Romo (at CAR). I know, it's hard to even consider benching Romo with the way he's played this year, but if you have a safer option it might be a smart idea. Romo is dealing with a bad thumb. It's hard for him to grip the ball, so don't expect him to throw it 30-plus times since the Cowboys still have plenty to play for this season and need a healthy Romo. Last week the Panthers did a good job against Matt Hasselbeck. And, what should be of little concern but is worth noting, Romo had six touchdowns and eight interceptions in five December games last year, so there could be a pattern here of poor finishes since he had no touchdowns and three interceptions last week against the Eagles.


RUNNING BACKS -- START 'EM

Brandon Jacobs (at BUF): This week is set up for Jacobs to play well and pick up where he left off last week. The weather in Buffalo is always unpredictable, so the Giants should give Jacobs plenty of touches. He had 25 carries for 130 yards last week against Washington and also added three catches for 30 yards. You know the Giants don't want to throw much this week following the dropped passes last week and the loss of Jeremy Shockey (broken leg). The Bills also are No. 22 in run defense with 12 rushing touchdowns allowed, and last week Jamal Lewis ran over Buffalo for 163 yards.

Fred Taylor (vs. OAK): Amazing is an understatement when it comes to describing what Taylor has accomplished this year, especially the past six games. Over that stretch, Taylor has 617 yards rushing and four touchdowns, including four-straight games over 100 yards. Last week against Pittsburgh, Taylor had 147 yards rushing and a touchdown, and he should continue to dominate this week against Oakland, which leads the NFL with 21 rushing touchdowns allowed.

Ryan Grant (at CHI): Grant has six touchdowns in his past six games and continues to be one of the best surprises this season. He was limited to 55 yards rushing last week at St. Louis, but he has four games over 100 yards rushing in his past eight outings. The Bears are allowing 124.1 yards per game on the ground with 16 touchdowns this season.

Earnest Graham (at SF): In his past six games, Graham has 547 yards rushing and seven touchdowns and 23 catches for 150 yards. He's taken over for the injured Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman and hasn't looked back. Now he faces the 49ers, who have allowed 119 yards rushing per game and nine touchdowns this season. Graham's hot streak should continue.

Jamal Lewis (at CIN): In 12 career games against the Bengals, Lewis has averaged 121.5 rushing yards per game with 10 touchdowns. In Week 2 this year, Lewis ran for 216 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals, who are No. 24 in run defense with 10 rushing touchdowns allowed. He's playing well right now, and that should continue.

Laurence Maroney (vs. MIA): We're about to find out if last week's performance against the Jets -- 26 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown -- was a fluke or not. I think Maroney can do it again, especially if the weather isn't good. The Dolphins are last in run defense and have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns this year, which is among the worst in the NFL.

Kevin Jones (vs. KC). In the Chiefs' past seven games, here's what starting running backs have done against them: 801 yards rushing and five touchdowns. Their run defense has fallen apart, and Jones should benefit, especially at home. Jones has rushed for 185 yards and three touchdowns in his past two homes games and has five touchdowns in six home games this season. We know that Jones has been inconsistent at times, with two games in his past three of five carries or less, but this is a great matchup for him.

RUNNING BACKS -- SIT 'EM

Clinton Portis (at MIN): Portis had a monster game last week at the Giants with 25 carries for 126 yards and a touchdown. He has played well this year and was a steal for most Fantasy owners in the draft. But this week he faces a tough test against the Vikings, who are No. 1 in run defense with only six rushing touchdowns allowed. Minnesota is only allowing 68 rushing yards per game, and Portis will find it tough to run this week. You might want to find a better option for the Fantasy playoffs this week.

Shaun Alexander (vs. BAL): Alexander hasn't scored a touchdown in his past two games and last week was held to seven carries for 17 yards. He might get a cheap touchdown this week, even though he's only scored three all season, but his best days are behind him. His only benefit is Ravens LB Ray Lewis is playing with an injured hand, but Baltimore's run defense should still be able to clamp down on Alexander this week.

Dominic Rhodes and LaMont Jordan (at JAC): Whoever starts for the Raiders in place of the injured Justin Fargas (knee) should not be used this week. Coach Lane Kiffin has yet to name a starter, but Kiffin has shown a total lack of trust in both players, keeping them inactive at various times this year. The Jaguars also have a solid run defense and should be able to limit both Raiders running backs.

Thomas Jones (at TEN): Jones has his only touchdown this year on the road, but that's been his lone accomplishment away from home. In seven road games this year Jones hasn't rushed for more than 75 yards in a game. Last week at New England was a low-point with only nine carries for 19 yards. The Titans should be able to contain Jones this week, and Jones is starting to lose carries to backup Leon Washington.

Chester Taylor (vs. WAS): It appears Taylor has officially returned to his role as Peterson's backup. Last week against Chicago, Taylor only had five carries for 31 yards and now has just 13 carries in the past two games. He could still get touches if the game gets out of hand or break a long run like he did at San Francisco two weeks ago, but you're probably better off keeping Taylor on the bench this week.

Adrian Peterson (vs. GB): Maybe it is the offensive line and not Cedric Benson being a failure this year since Peterson has struggled also. Since taking over for Benson, Peterson hasn't rushed for more than 67 yards and has no touchdowns in three starts. He is catching the ball out of the backfield, which is a plus, but this should be a tough matchup for him. The Packers have only allowed five rushing touchdowns this year.

Ron Dayne (at IND). Dayne is dealing with a sore ankle and losing carries to Darius Walker. He did have 67 yards rushing and a touchdown last week against Denver, but the Colts run defense is better than the Broncos. Dayne will probably take it easy the last two games, with the Texans likely giving Walker an extended look, so keep Dayne reserved this week to be safe.


WIDE RECEIVERS -- START 'EM

Wes Welker (vs. MIA): Weather could obviously impact this game as it did last week for the Patriots against the Jets, but Welker should still be successful against his former team. The first time these teams met in Miami earlier this year Welker had nine catches for 138 yards and two touchdowns. I doubt Tom Brady will have two bad games in a row, and the same goes for Welker and his fellow wide receivers.

Anthony Gonzalez (vs. HOU): Peyton Manning is enjoying his new weapon in Gonzalez, who has 13 catches for 220 yards and three touchdowns in his past two games. The rookie wide receiver is finally playing as expected and should continue to thrive against the Texans. Gonzalez only had two catches for 39 yards against Houston in their first meeting, but he's improved quite a bit since then and has done a great job filling in for an injured Marvin Harrison (knee).

Deion Branch (vs. BAL): Like last week, add Bobby Engram to this list since these are Matt Hasselbeck's two favorite targets. Branch had eight catches for 79 yards and a touchdown last week at Carolina and has two touchdowns in his past two games. Engram also had nine catches for 84 yards last week and has two touchdowns in his past three games. You can expect Hasselbeck to throw plenty in this game, and his wide receivers should benefit.

Kevin Curtis (at NO): Add Reggie Brown to this list also since both should see plenty of passes. The Saints secondary is No. 30 in the NFL with 26 passing touchdowns allowed, so this could be a similar game for the Eagles like Week 3 against Detroit when they threw all over the place and Curtis caught 11 passes for 221 yards and three touchdowns.

Dwayne Bowe (at DET): Bowe hasn't scored a touchdown in his past four games, but this is a good opportunity for him to find success. The Lions are terrible in pass defense and are tied with Cleveland for the most passing touchdowns allowed with 27. This is a matchup of two of the best rookie wide receivers in Bowe and Calvin Johnson, so look for Bowe to try and make a statement in this game. Bowe also has scored a touchdown in three of his past five road games.

Chris Henry (vs. CLE). Henry missed the first shootout with the Browns in Week 2 because he was suspended, but he should enjoy playing in this week's festivities. Henry had 10 catches for 154 yards and two touchdowns last year in two games against Cleveland. And the Browns are No. 29 in pass defense and tied for the NFL lead with 27 passing touchdowns allowed.

WIDE RECEIVERS -- SIT 'EM

Steve Smith (vs. DAL): Smith connected well with Matt Moore last week with eight catches for 72 yards, but that was his best production since Week 6. He hasn't had a touchdown or gone over 100 yards since then, and now Smith is missing practice with an illness. Dallas has a good secondary, and the Cowboys will make sure Smith doesn't make any big plays against them.

Derrick Mason (at SEA): Mason has scored a touchdown in two of his past three games, but this is a tough matchup for him. The Seahawks lead the NFL with only 10 passing touchdowns allowed and are tied for second with 20 interceptions. With Kyle Boller coming off a concussion and a long road trip across the country, keep Mason reserved this week.

Bernard Berrian (vs. GB): Berrian only had two catches for 23 yards last week at Minnesota and seemed to be replaced in the offense a lot by Devin Hester. With Kyle Orton at quarterback for the Bears, it's not safe to start Berrian this week. He also has a tough history against the Packers with only nine catches for 228 yards and one touchdown in his past five meetings.

Patrick Crayton (at CAR): Even without QB Tony Romo dealing with a bad thumb, Crayton would be worth sitting this week. He only has five catches for 100 yards in his past two games and has only two touchdowns on the road this season. He also has only 10 catches in his past four games, and Romo is clearly going to Terrell Owens and Jason Witten ahead of Crayton. There also is a slight chance Terry Glenn could return this week, which would cut into Crayton's targets.

Javon Walker (at SD): Walker actually started last week at Houston, but he's still not 100 percent back from his knee injury, so keep him on the bench. He also has a tough history against the Chargers with only eight catches for 120 yards and no touchdowns in two games last year. The safe bet with Walker is to wait until next year before playing him again.

Reggie Williams (vs. JAC). Williams caught another touchdown last week at Pittsburgh and now has four touchdowns in his past five games. He has played tremendous this season thanks to the emergence of David Garrard. But I don't know how much passing the Jaguars will have to do this week. Oakland's weakness is the run, so look for the Jaguars to exploit the matchup with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew and give the passing game a rest this week.


TIGHT ENDS -- START 'EM

Dallas Clark (vs. HOU): Clark has a good history against the Texans, and that should continue this week. He has three touchdowns in his past four games against Houston, including catching four passes for 58 yards and a score earlier this year. Peyton Manning has been leaning heavily on Clark this year, and there's no reason for that to stop now.

Chris Cooley (at MIN): Cooley only had two catches for 34 yards last week against the Giants, which was only the fourth time this season he was held to under three catches. But he should bounce back this week against the Vikings, who remain last in the NFL in pass defense. QB Todd Collins, who will start again for an injured Jason Campbell (knee), likes throwing to his tight ends.

Chris Baker (at TEN): Baker had eight catches for 66 yards last week at New England and has a good rapport with Chad Pennington, who is expected to replace an injured Kellen Clemens (ribs). Tennessee has been vulnerable at times to tight ends this year, and Baker could see an increased role if Laveranues Coles (ankle) is out. One-week sleeper:

Greg Olsen (vs. GB). The Packers have struggled defending tight ends at times this year, including Olsen in their first meeting. Olsen had four catches for 57 yards and a touchdown at Green Bay in Week 5 and will look to duplicate that success this week.

TIGHT ENDS -- SIT 'EM

Owen Daniels (at IND): Daniels has nine catches for 115 yards and a touchdown in his past three games and had seven catches for 56 yards against the Colts earlier this season. But Indianapolis is No. 1 in pass defense and should make stopping Daniels one of its priorities.

Alge Crumpler (at ARI): Crumpler went from an elite tight end to a dud this year with the mess in Atlanta, and last week he had no catches at Tampa Bay. Even though the Cardinals pass defense is porous, Crumpler is just not a safe enough option to use at this time.

Randy McMichael (vs. PIT): The Steelers defense has been beaten up the past couple of weeks, but they still do a good job defending tight ends. McMichael has caught two passes in each of his past four games with only one touchdown during that span, and those kinds of stats in this matchup means keep McMichael reserved this week.

Donald Lee (at CHI). Lee has a touchdown in his past two games and has played well this year, but he has a difficult history against the Bears. In his past five games against Chicago, mostly in a reserve role, Lee only has 11 catches for 110 yards and no touchdowns. Earlier this year, Lee only had three catches for 23 yards, and the Bears have only allowed 16 passing touchdowns this year.


KICKERS -- START 'EM

Jeff Reed (at STL): Last week against the Rams, Green Bay kicker Mason Crosby hit all four field goals, with a long of 50, and three extra points. That bodes well for Reed, who should enjoy kicking in the dome. The Rams, in part thanks to Crosby, are tied for second in the NFL for most field goals allowed with 30.

Josh Brown (vs. BAL): The weather in Seattle could be bad, but Brown is used to kicking in this situation. He is 14-of-17 at home this year, and the Ravens present a good matchup. Baltimore leads the NFL in field goals allowed with 35, so expect Brown to get some chances this week.

Jason Hanson (vs. KC): Hanson likes kicking at home, and playing indoors in Detroit this time of year is a good thing. He is 16-of-20 at home this year, including 6-of-7 in his past two games at Ford Field. The Chiefs are among the league leaders with 29 field goals allowed, and last week Tennessee's Rob Bironas had four field goals and two extra points against Kansas City.

Matt Bryant (at SF). Bryant has been up-and-down this season. He made three field goals last week against Atlanta, and the week before at Houston he did not attempt a kick. He also is only 4-of-6 on field goals on the road in his past five games. But the 49ers have allowed 27 field goals this season, which is among the worst in the NFL. Cincinnati's Shayne Graham kicked two field goals against San Francisco last week.

KICKERS -- SIT 'EM

Jay Feely (at NE): The Dolphins got Feely to make kicks in cold weather, and the weather in New England should put Feely to the test. Going against Feely is a defense in the Patriots that has allowed only 12 field goals this season, which is tied for second in the NFL for fewest allowed. Feely did not attempt a field goal against the Patriots in their first matchup this season in Miami.

Lawrence Tynes (at BUF): Tynes had gone 9-of-9 on field goals prior to last week against Washington when he missed a field goal, bringing back bad memories for Giants fans, who saw Tynes miss three field goals in the first two months of the season. The Bills have allowed 25 field goals this year, which is among the league leaders, but the weather for this game is expected to be bad, so look for Tynes to struggle this week.

Kris Brown (at IND): Brown is 3-of-4 on field goals at Indianapolis in his past five trips to the RCA Dome, and he hasn't had more than one attempt in any outing. That's standard fare for the Colts, who are tied for second in the NFL for fewest field goals allowed with 12. Indianapolis is only allowing 16.5 points per game and should limit Brown's chances.

Jason Elam (at SD). Elam has missed three field goals in his past five games at San Diego. Elam made his only field goal against the Chargers earlier this year, but San Diego leads the NFL with only 11 made field goals this year. Elam has made two field goals in every game over his past six outings, but he might not get enough scoring chances this week to keep that streak alive.


DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS -- START 'EM

The Jaguars DST (vs. OAK): The Jaguars defense hasn't been so successful this season for Fantasy owners, although they did have five sacks last week in Pittsburgh. But this week they have a favorable matchup against the Raiders, who are among the league leaders in sacks allowed (33) and turnovers (29). Oakland is without its best running back in Justin Fargas (knee) and will continue to give rookie quarterback JaMarcus Russell playing time, which will be his first action on the road. The Jaguars have some key injuries on defense, but that shouldn't matter this week.

The Buccaneers DST (at SF): It took 32 seasons and 1,865 tries, but the Bucs finally returned a kickoff for a touchdown last week against Atlanta when Michael Spurlock scored. The Bucs also returned an interception for a touchdown, and this year Tampa Bay is among the league leaders in takeaways with 31. The 49ers, meanwhile, are last in total offense and among the league leaders with 32 turnovers and 48 sacks allowed. San Francisco also is on their third QB in Shaun Hill, and this should be a tough challenge for him.

The Seahawks DST (vs. BAL): The Ravens lead the NFL in turnovers with 36 and have a struggling QB in Kyle Boller, who is coming off a concussion. That's a good thing for the Seahawks, who are second in the NFL with 41 sacks and tied for second in interceptions with 20.

The Cardinals DST (vs. ATL). The Cardinals are dealing with key injuries on defense, but the Falcons are a mess right now. They allowed a touchdown on special teams and had an interception returned against them at Tampa Bay last week. Atlanta is among the league leaders with 43 sacks allowed and has turned the ball over 23 times this year. Arizona's defense has played well at home this year and should shine again this week.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS -- SIT 'EM

The Ravens DST (at SEA): The Ravens secondary has been a mess this year and now has LB Ray Lewis dealing with a hurt finger. Seattle can't run the ball, but the Seahawks will likely revert back to their successful passing game, which was working until last week at Carolina. If Baltimore struggled with the Dolphins last week, expect the Seahawks to do some damage.

The Steelers DST (at STL): What's happened to the Steelers defense? They have one sack in their past three games and only one interception. Even with Troy Polamalu returning last week against Jacksonville, the Jaguars still ran all over the Steelers. The Rams play well at home, and Pittsburgh just isn't playing well enough right now to be counted on.

The Panthers DST (vs. DAL): The Panthers DST played great last week against Seattle with three sacks and only allowing 10 points. But even with Tony Romo dealing with an injured thumb, Carolina has struggled too much this year to be trustworthy. Weather could play a part in this game, which was the case last week, but Dallas will run the ball better than Seattle did and put up points with limited turnovers.

The Eagles DST (at NO). The Saints are averaging 31 points at home over their past four games, and QB Drew Brees only has two interceptions at home over that span. The Eagles defense played great last week in holding Dallas to just six points, but now LB Takeo Spikes is out with an injured shoulder. There's also a chance the Saints could get RB Reggie Bush back in the lineup, which will help New Orleans' offense.

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posted by Marcel. 20 December 2007 - 10:38